Sunday, September 4, 2011

The Problem with Lists

The fact that lists are becoming standard fare in our sound-bite, Twitter-obsessed society is no surprise.  No doubt "Best Places for Capricorns to Retire" is in the works.  And while lists can occasionally be fun (David Letterman) and very useful (The Ten Commandments) they can also be misleading.  Or, to paraphrase Mark Twain's screed against statistics; there are lies, damn lies and lists.

Here's a short list of the problem with lists:
  • Lists blur fact and opinion.
It's this distinction that got Socrates into all that trouble with his fellow Athenians, so some perspective is called for.   When you look at the American League East standings and see  the Red Sox in first, that's a fact.  When you read a list that says Hackensack University Medical Center is the best place in the Metropolitan Area to have a heart transplant, that's an opinion. It's a fact that "Unbroken" was a top selling hard back.   Stating "Reconsidering Retirement" is the best retirement blog out there." is an opinion, albeit a very good one.

The best rule of thumb is to always avoid lists and declarative sentences that contain the word "best."
  • Lists are pure marketing.
US News and World Report was floundering until it began publishing numbing lists of the "best" colleges, graduate schools, hospitals and the like.  The magazine claims its rankings are based on a scientific formula (Is there any other kind?) which is proprietary. They also deflect any blame if colleges make too much of the rankings and students misuse them. Clearly, this has the same effect as the Surgeon General's warning on that carton of Marlboros.  In any event, it's remarkable how from Princeton to Pepperdine these esteemed institutions allow themselves to be compared like kitchen appliances in Consumer Reports.

Mutual fund rankings also deserve a mention (the credit rating agencies have been pilloried enough.) Many plan sponsors (and retirees) get caught up in a system where they may be reluctant to select funds without a certain number of stars. They fear criticism (and worse as plan fiduciaries) if an investment lineup doesn't have the highest ranked funds.  This over-reliance on rankings can distort the fund selection process by causing investors to overlook funds that in fact may be better suited to meet their goals in spite of "inferior" rankings.  

It's remarkable that the purveyors of lists and rankings have university presidents trembling and plan fiduciaries relying on stars. Pure marketing genius.
  • Lists make you lazy.
The goal of most lists is to sell something. In spite of that, they can offer some useful information. Of course the same may be said of SportsCenter, Cliff Notes and retirement blogs.  However, watching SportsCenter's "Top Ten Plays" is no substitute for appreciating the unscripted drama of that particular game.  After slogging through Moby Dick it is tempting to recommend an abbreviated version but, needless to say, the experience won't be the same.  And blogs can be useful, but of course the most important thing is to have a well thought-out retirement plan that is unique to your needs.

If the list of top places to retire in Central America is the catalyst for creating a more serious retirement plan then mission accomplished. Just hold off on buying the banana plantation before conducting the proper research. 

The point is not to confuse information for knowledge. 
  • Lists make the listed and listers do crazy things.
Clemson University acknowledged it was taking specific steps to improve its standing in the college rankings, such as manipulating class size.   Other schools have changed policy and awarded bonuses to presidents and administrators who spearhead a leap in rankings.  Football coaches run up scores to better their standings in the BCS rankings.  A number of college presidents have pledged not to participate in the US News survey to avoid being ranked. And did Standard & Poor's with their inimitable track record really have the chutzpah to downgrade the debt of the United States?  The list, if you will, goes on and on.

Clearly there is no best college just like there is no best place to retire.  College, like retirement, is not where you go but what you make of it once you're there.

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